Across 340 completed transactions in the twelve months to September 2025, realised recovery came in at a median 96.2% of the net orderly liquidation value we appraised beforehand. That is the tightest the spread has been in four years, and it is not because appraisals got braver.
Two things changed. Secondary demand for industrial equipment deepened as new-build lead times stayed long, and retail estates came to market earlier in their decline curve, with inventory that was still current rather than picked over.
The interesting divergence is by category rather than by sector. Consumables and fleet cleared inside a nine-point band. Apparel and fixtures did not — apparel spread 24 points depending on age and channel, and fixtures continued to be worth roughly whatever the freight costs.
For lenders the practical implication is unglamorous: the appraisal is doing its job, and the risk has moved from valuation accuracy to timing. Estates that waited two quarters gave up more value to aging than any pricing error we recorded.
The risk has moved from valuation accuracy to timing.
This note reflects transactions completed by the group and is published for information only. It is not an appraisal, a valuation opinion or an offer of credit.